You’ve heard it before; Carter County’s population is declining,
and Elizabethton’s will likely follow suit by the time the next census rolls
out in 2020. The real question is what’s happening? Why are people leaving
Carter County and where are they going? Well, when we look at the numbers, they’re
not leaving – they’re dying. According to the Tennessee Department of Health,
746 people died in Carter County during the year 2016. During the same year,
only 488 babies were born. Statistically Carter County is losing citizens at an
average rate of 3.3 people for every 1,000 people annually. That’s around 184
people per year!
Of course, it never sounds like a good thing when we mention
a population loss, but what are the true implications of this? Fewer people
means less need for housing within the County. Less housing demand means an
increase in dilapidated and neglected properties to deal with. Less housing
demand means housing prices will fall or not grow as fast as they do in the
surrounding areas (which also means less wealth is created within the County).
Less housing demand and lower home values means less money being collected in
taxes by governments, which may mean the need to increase taxes on those still
living there. Less population means fewer workers for companies and businesses
to hire and making it more difficult to recruit new and retain existing businesses
to the county. I could go on, but I think you get the point – there are huge
implications of a declining population.
So, what can we do to even start addressing this problem?
Well, first let me explain the factors affecting population growth. There are
two ways communities and counties grow – natural growth (more births than
deaths) and migration growth (people moving from somewhere else). Natural
growth occurs best when you have a healthy population of females between the
ages of 16 to 35 – essentially of birthing age. As we have already discussed,
natural growth for Carter County is a no-go. We lack young families in Carter
County and I suspect this would be evident if you looked at school enrollment
over the past 5-10 years. This leaves us with migration growth as our only
option.
Migration growth is a lot more difficult than natural
growth, because we must sell our city and county to people who live elsewhere
and convince them that our place is better. Thankfully, because of our
proximity to Johnson City and Bristol, jobs don’t have to be the first priority
(typically this is the hardest part). The average commute time for Carter, Unicoi,
and Washington Counties is 21 minutes which easily puts the Tri-County
Industrial Park and all the businesses in Johnson City easily within average
commute times. In my opinion, the top priority for Elizabethton and Carter
County is to make it attractive for young families. We have to start investing
in ourselves to make our community and county attractive to an admittedly
different, younger generation who look for different amenities where they live and
place values on different ways of living than what we’ve seen in previous
generations.
The next time your talk to your children, grandchildren, or just
a young professional in their late 20s, ask them what they look for in their
city and county when they’re deciding where to live. Their answers may be
different and what you may even consider impossible to do here in Carter County
but consider the alternative. The recent battle over the property tax increase
in the County could very well be just the beginning of the County’s future if
we don’t start working on making their desires our future. Let’s talk about it!
